The number of Americans dying from Covid continues to increase this week, with 1,839 Americans succumbing to the virus every day. While hospitalizations seem to be increasing as well, experts note that the figure could be misleading and are calling for better data collection practices to be implemented.
Deaths caused by Covid in the United States are up 36 percent increase over the past two weeks, with a record 155,000 people being hospitalized with the virus daily – a 61 percent increase over the past two weeks and an all-time pandemic record.
Official data does not differentiate people who are admitted to the hospital due to complications caused by Covid from people who arrive for treatment for another condition, and test positive while present, though. With the rapid circulation of the virus in recent weeks, and the high test positivity rate, thousands of people who have mild cases of the virus are being added into official hospitalization totals.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul, whose state has been the hardest hit by the Omicron variant and is among the leaders in hospitalization rate, called for hospitals to more clearly delineate how many people are receiving hospital care for Covid complications – a potential shift in how numbers will be counted from here on out.
Meredith Allen (pictured), vice president for health security at the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, said that it would be wise for states to put resources into efforts that are not daily Covid case reporting
‘Beginning tomorrow, we’re going to be asking all hospitals to break out for us how many people are being hospitalized because of Covid symptoms [and] how many people … happen to be testing positive, just while they’re in there for other treatments,’ she said at the start of January.
When exactly these changes will go into effect, and how they will affect data, is unclear.
‘The goal of public health data is to provide information to people so they can take actions to keep themselves safer and healthier,’ said Meredith Allen, vice president for health security at the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials, told Bangor Daily News.
‘We’re getting to a point where a daily case count isn’t giving people that information.’
Allen said that officials should instead focus their time, energy, and resources on other efforts.
‘That would allow public health agencies to focus on prevention efforts in high-risk populations such as long-term care facilities and work more closely with schools and vaccination clinics … rather than put the time and energy into producing that daily number,’ Allen said.
There is still some value to current case counts, though. It can show the overall levels of circulation of the virus, and also give everyone a general idea of how deadly the virus currently is. The Omicron variant, for example, is currently causing massive case increases around the country.
The U.S.’s daily case average eclipsed 800,000 for the first time over the weekend, with the height of the Omicron surge now reaching four times as many cases as the peak of the Delta wave. Disparities in case figures have not translated into more deaths, though, with the 1,839 deaths being recorded every day in America – the most since early October – is still far below the 3,200 deaths per day being averaged at the peak of the Delta surge in late September.
Cases also seem to be reaching a peak. Week-to-week case growth nationwide is slowing. New daily cases are only up seven percent over the past week, compared to a 75 percent increase the week before. New York and New Jersey were struck hard and fast by the variant last month, but cases in the neighboring states are now decreasing over the past two weeks – down 14 percent and 20 percent respectively.
Dr Vivek Murthy, America’s surgeon general, warns that the peak may not be as near as some believe. He told CNN on Sunday that not every state will experience was is currently going on along the east coast.
‘There are parts of the country — New York, in particular, and other parts of the Northeast — where we are starting to see a plateau, and in some cases, an early decline in cases,’ Murthy said.
‘The challenge is that the entire country is not moving at the same pace,’
‘The Omicron wave started later in other parts of the country, so we shouldn’t expect a national peak in the next coming days. The next few weeks will be tough.’
There is currently a large gulf between case change rates for states east of the Mississippi river and those west of it, as the virus seems to be travelling out west after initial surges along the east coast.
What happens in the UK often proceeds the U.S. by a few weeks. Across the pond, cases are continuing to decline after a massive surge struck the nation last month. The country recorded 84,429 new cases on Monday, and the daily case average has fallen to around the 100,000 mark – and will likely only fall further in the coming days.
The plummeting of new cases has continued in South Africa as well. The country which first detected the variant – and suffered its first major outbreak – is now recording less than 5,000 new Covid cases per day after reaching the heights of more than 23,000 per day only a few weeks ago.
Covid reporting in the U.S. is different than some other countries, as it is largely decentralized with each state using its own system and its own schedule to report cases. This has led to inconsistent numbers and totally unreliable figures at some points during the pandemic.
Florida, for example, abandoned regularly reporting cases early last year. Nebraska has shut down some of its public Covid reporting systems as well. When Gov Hochul took office in New York, she informed the public that her predecessor, Andrew Cuomo, had failed to add around 12,000 deaths in the state to official numbers.
Dr Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said that the lack of data available has hindered the agency’s response to Delta and Omicron.
‘We have decades of underinvestment in information systems,’ Tom Frieden, the CDC’s director from 2009 to 2017, told the Wall Street Journal.
Some have been hopeful that the rise of Omicron, a less deadly but more infectious variant, would lead to the end of the pandemic. If enough people get infected, and by virtue have natural immunity, then the virus could burn out and run out of people to infect. That could be what Americans are already seeing with the tapering off of cases in some parts of the country.
Dr Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, warns that it may be too early to see that light at the end of the tunnel, though.
‘It is an open question whether it will be the live virus vaccination that everyone is hoping for,’ Fauci said during a video conference Monday.
Indiana currently leads the U.S. in daily deaths, holding the dubious honor for the past week. The Hoosier state is recording 1.3 deaths per every 100,000 residents – far outpacing every other U.S. state. Some hospitals are reporting that they are overwhelmed by the number of Covid patients coming in for treatment, and the state’s hospital association told the Indy Star that medical facilities are running above capacity.
‘The current state is probably the worst to second worst that I have ever seen it,’ Dr Mark Leutkemeyer, chief medical officer for Indiana University Health’s Adult Academic Health Center, said.
St Joseph County, a northwestern county that includes South Bend, has even opted to spend some of its Covid relief money on expanding morgue capacity in order to deal with the surging deaths.
Michigan has also long struggled with Covid, being among the national leaders in hospitalizations and deaths for months now. One out of every 100 Michiganders was hospitalized with Covid at some point in 2021. The state is now averaging 1.08 daily deaths per every 100,000 residents.
Seven U.S. states are recording more than one death per every 100,000 residents as of Monday morning, including Indiana and Michigan. New Mexico (1.1 deaths per every 100,000 residents), Maryland (1.08), Pennsylvania (1.06), Ohio (1.04) and New Jersey (1.02) make up the rest of the group.
While New Jersey has rejoined the club of states experiencing high death rates, cases are dropping in the Garden state, a signal this surge is coming to an end. Its neighbor, New York, and Maryland – which is experiencing a seven percent decline in daily cases – are the only three states in America where cases are going down.
The rate of case growth in state where cases are increasing is starting to slow, though. Last week, almost every state in America was recording a two-week doubling of cases. As of Monday morning, only 35 states have logged an increase of more than 100 percent in the past 14 days.
Some states that were once hotspots look like they could soon join the ranks of states posting decreasing cases. Georgia was once one of the hardest hit states in America by the recent Omicron surge, mainly fueled by an outbreak in the Atlanta area. The Peach state has seen a rapid decline in growth, though, with cases only up 34 percent over the past two weeks.
Neighboring Florida has quickly dropped off the leaderboard of states with the highest case growth, with the Sunshine state logging a 35 percent increase in cases over the past two weeks. Florida numbers can sometimes be misleading, though, due to the inconsistent nature of case reporting in the state.
A Covid surge in Chicago was primarily responsible for Illinois being among case growth leaders in December – even as cases were decreasing for a lot of the rest of the Midwest. The tapering off of cases in the state’s most populated city has made the situation seem more under control, with the Prairie state now logging a 61 percent increase in cases over the past two weeks – with the figure only expecting to fall further.
While states in the east start seeing cases taper off, the virus’s move westward is continuing. Alaska is still far and away the U.S. leader in case change, with the state experiencing a 610 percent increase in daily case over the past two weeks.
Texas (428 percent case increase over past two weeks), Utah (414 percent), Oregon (402 percent) and Montana (394 percent) also make up the national leaders.
Every mainland U.S. state west of the Mississippi river has recorded a doubling of cases over the past two weeks, with all but Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Minnesota – which are all along the river – recording a tripling of cases as well. This further highlights the massive westward movement of the virus.
States along the east coast are still leading the U.S. in hospitalization rate. New Jersey and New York are both logging 70 Covid hospitalizations per every 100,000 residents – tied with Delaware for the country’s lead. Pennsylvania (63 per every 100,000) and Maryland (61) make up the rest of the top five. These numbers are not totally reliable, though.
UK agency predicts that Covid will enter ‘flu-type’ state in 2022
Britain could have a ‘flu-type’ relationship with Covid by the end of 2022, one of the Government’s scientific advisers said today.
Dr Mike Tildesley, who sits on an influential modelling sub-group of SAGE, warned the country ‘was not there yet’ because hospitalization levels from the virus are still ‘relatively high’ — despite being just a fraction of those seen in previous waves.
But he predicted even milder variants than Omicron would emerge over the course of the year, bolstering the UK’s wall of immunity and creating an even bigger disconnect between infection numbers and hospitalizations and deaths.
Dr Tildesley, a modeler at Warwick University, said the data suggested the pandemic was ‘turning around’ following the Omicron wave, meaning ministers could start discussing what ‘living with’ Covid would be like.
Infections are now in freefall across the country, with MailOnline analysis suggesting outbreaks are now shrinking in 96 per cent of England’s 7,000 neighborhoods. Hospitalizations also appear to be trending downwards.
Education Secretary and former vaccine tsar Nadhim Zahawi today described the figures as ‘promising’, and a sign ‘Plan B’ restrictions could be lifted before the end of this month because the country is set to be in a ‘much better place’ within weeks.
The optimistic comments came as a World Health Organization expert today said there was ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ for Britain amid plummeting case numbers and stable hospital rates.
Across the pond cases are plummeting. A MailOnline analysis of case data in the UK finds that infections are dropping in 96 percent of the countries neighborhoods. The mortality rate of Covid during this wave of the virus is seven times lower than it was at the peak of the 2020-2021 winter surge. Half as many Britons are in hospitals now suffering from Covid symptoms when compared to the original peak in March 2020.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), a government agency that advises in times of crisis, even predicts the virus could reach an endemic phase by the end of the year. Dr Mike Tildesley, who is a part of SAGE’s modelling board, predicted Monday that even more mild variants than Omicron will emerge in the coming months.
While infections may continue to rise, deaths and hospitalizations are predicted to stay low – putting Omicron into a flu-like relationship with humanity.
On Monday, the UK recorded 84,429 new cases, the fourth consecutive day with less than 100,000 new cases and another figure which brings down the nation’s case average. The UK also recorded 85 deaths, dropping back below the triple-digit mark after a worrying uptick in deaths last week.
In South Africa, the 4,700 average new daily cases is the lowest total since late November – just when the Omicron fueled surge was starting. The nation’s Covid surge reached a peak of 23,000 daily cases in mid-December, though deaths never increase beyond 140 per day – far less than the 400 deaths per day being logged during the summer Delta surge and another example of how mild Omicron infection can be.
France’s record Covid wave seems to be cresting as well, with the European nation finally seeing rampant case growth slow down in recent days. The country is averaging 286,000 cases per day, a ten percent increase over the 262,000 cases being recorded daily a week ago.
For comparison, over the previous week, cases had increased by 63 percent.
Denmark was one of the first countries to suffer an Omicron-fueled Covid outbreak. The nation saw cases rapidly increase, and officials in the state instituted partial lockdown measures to counter the spread of the virus. Over the weekend, restrictions were lifted, signaling the nation is more comfortable with Omicron at the moment.
The country is averaging 23,000 new cases per day as on Monday, a record for the Nordic nation. Denmark has never suffered a massive surge of Covid cases, with its record being around 35 per day last winter. Currently, the nation is recording ten deaths from the virus daily.