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Omicron: Covid 3rd Wave May Hit Peak by January-end. SBI Report Suggests this for National Peak

India may achieve national peak of third wave of Covid-19 pandemic in the next two weeks, said a research report published by State Bank of India. India has witnessed a rapid surge in daily Covid-19 cases in the last few weeks. The country recorded 238,018 fresh Covid-19 infections in the last 24 hours, according to the data published by ministry of health and family welfare. The daily active count of Covid-19 cases drop below 1 lakh for the first time in nearly two weeks. The daily positivity rate stood at 14.43 per cent. The countries severely affected by Omicron, the average time was 54 days to reach peak. “Present peak time cases on an average are 3.3 times higher than previous peak time cases,” the report added.

Is it the beginning of the end of highly transmissible Covid-19 third wave?

Covid-19 Third Wave May Reach Peak by Month-end: SBI Research Report

In a research report from the State Bank of India’s economic research department, Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser, wrote that with 20,971 daily cases, Covid-19 third wave has achieved its peak in Mumbai. Now, new Covid-19 cases in Mumbai have been stabilised in the last few days. However, cases in other places such as Bengaluru, Pune are still witnessing a sharp rise. “So, if other districts also implement strict measures and control the spread, then national peak may come within two-three weeks after Mumbai peak,” Ghosh suggested. For Omicron wave, the decline from the peak can be as swift as the increase, the report said.

In the rural areas, the number of new Covid-19 cases is higher in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Himchal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Odisha and Rajastha, according to SBI Research report.

Providing an example of Covid-19 second wave last year, Ghosh mentioned the many of the major districts achieved second peak before national peak on May 6, 2021.

Sharing a glimpse of the Covid-19 cases in the top 15 districts, Ghosh said that new infections have already started declining in many places. It must be noted that 10 of the top 15 districts are major cities. New Covid-19 cases in top 15 districts dropped to 37.4 per cent in January 2022 from 67.9 per cent in December, 2021. “The overall share of rural districts in new cases has increased to 32.6 per cent in January 2022 from the lowest of 14.4 per cent in December 2021, according to SBI research report.

Covid-19 Vaccination: Rural Vaccination Share is 83%

At least 89 per cent of the eligible population has been vaccinated with at least first dose and 64 per cent administered with both doses, the report mentioned.

Around 44 lakh precaution doses and 3.45 crore doses to 15-18 age group have been administered so far.

Some rural areas saw low number of fresh Covid-19 infections due to high Covid-19 vaccination coverage, the report further mentioned. “The rural vaccination share in total vaccination is as high as 83 per cent in January, 2022,” according to SBI report.

However, tO, it added.

Over 70 per cent of the eligible population have been vaccinated with double dose in Andhara Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Uttarakhand among others. “However, Punjab, UP and Jharkhand are still lagging behind. These states need to pick up pace,” SBI report suggested.

SBI Business Activity Index Dropped

SBI business activity index declined from 109.0 as January 10 to 101.0 as on January 17. This was lowest since November 15, 2021. The weekly arrival of vegetables, RTO revenue collection and Apple mobility index declined significantly amid the huge search in Covid-19 cases in India.

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